As China has implemented the main measure to protect supply and stabilize prices, the export legal inspection policy has guaranteed the supply in China domestic market last year, especially in spring, and kept the price in a reasonable range all the time.
At present, in the international market compared with last year, the supply and demand situation has changed very much. International fertilizer supply in 2023 will be more obviously relieved, especially compared with the first half of 2022.
The reason why the international market was tight last year was due to a series of impacts brought about by the Ukraine crisis. But from the data, throughout last year, the sanctions, in addition to the substantial impact on the exports of potash from Russia and Belarus, China's exports of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers were basically unaffected, and there was an increase in exports of phosphate fertilizers. With the logistic problem of Belarus being gradually solved and Russia to further overcome the difficulties caused by the sanctions, the potash exports from both countries in 2023 are likely to increase. And as Eastern Europe, Central Asia and other regions in 2023 are increasing urea capacity, supply bottlenecks will be further resolved.
On the demand side, the current market demand in North America, Brazil, South America and other major markets is still weak, and the bidding in India is also full of uncertainty. The international fertilizer market demand is slowing down.
For the following situation of fertilizer export, China may need to consider how to protect its share in the international market. 2022, as a full year of the official implementation of the fertilizer export legal inspection policy, can be said to have achieved remarkable results in terms of protecting supply and stabilizing prices. At present, with the changes in the international market environment, it may be necessary to optimize the implementation of the legal inspection in stages according to the supply and demand of fertilizer production in the domestic and international markets, to protect the overseas share of production and export enterprises on the basis of controllable total exports and ensuring sufficient domestic supply, so that they can receive part of the export dividend and maintain normal production of enterprises.
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