1. China's chemical fertilizer export policy may be appropriately relaxed.
China's fertilizer exports declined significantly in 2022, influenced by global epidemic fluctuations on the one hand and the legal inspection policy imposed by Chinese customs on fertilizer exports on the other. These impediments will continue in 2023, but export policies are expected to ease as global and Chinese fertilizer prices move lower.
2. The European government supports the production of nitrogen fertilizer enterprises, which helps to increase the supply of nitrogen fertilizer
European governments will priorities support for the production of fertilizers and their by-products and may provide financial support to nitrogen fertilizer producers, which on the one hand will decouple nitrogen fertilizer prices from production costs.
3. The cost of nitrogen fertilizer production in Europe will rise, while the price of nitrogen fertilizer will be decoupled from the cost and fall.
In 2023, production costs for nitrogen fertilizers in Europe are expected to rise again. TTF gas prices are expected to remain high due to cuts in the supply of Russian gas. However, nitrogen fertilizer prices are expected to fall and decouple from costs due to the ample global supply of nitrogen fertilizer.
4. Russia's synthetic ammonia export will resume
In 2021, Russia was the world's largest exporter of ammonia, transporting 4.4 million tons of ammonia. Russia's total ammonia exports have fallen to 800,000 tons. If there is a breakthrough in the negotiations organized by the UN in 2023, it is expected that Russian ammonia exports could reach around 2 million tones, mainly in the second half of 2023.
5. Belarus will look for alternative potash export channels.
Potash exports from Belarus fall from 12.3 million tons in 2021 to 5.5 million tons in 2022. Belarus will look for alternative but less efficient channels for potash exports, which are expected to be around 5.3 million tons in 2023.
6. OCP Group will gain more market share.
In 2023, a gradual rebound in global phosphate fertilizer demand, coupled with increased capacity of downstream phosphate fertilizer producers, will allow OCP to gain more market share in DAP and MAP, with OCP exports expected to be around 8.6 million tonnes in 2023.
7. Global crop prices will remain high.
Russia is the world's largest exporter of wheat, while Ukraine is the fifth largest. The two countries together account for 19% of global barley supply, 14% of wheat supply and 4% of maize supply, and more than a third of global cereal exports. global crop supply and demand are likely to remain tight in 2023, and global crop prices will remain high in 2023.
8. Fertilizer manufacturers tend to acquire companies with patented technologies for new plant nutrition.
Global fertilizer prices have risen significantly in 2022, with farmers around the world reducing their use of fertilizers and experimenting with high-efficiency, value-added fertilizer products. As a result, in 2023, fertilizer producers may be inclined to acquire companies with patented technologies for new plant nutrients.
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