In September, China's thermal coal prices rebounded, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices rose by 21.84% over the past two months, drawing attention to the downstream nitrogen fertilizer (urea) market. Rising upstream raw material costs directly increased urea production costs, potentially driving nitrogen fertilizer prices up. Globally, nitrogen fertilizer supply remains relatively abundant, phosphate supply and demand are balanced, while potash prices have risen in recent years due to monopolistic control and supply gaps. The expected rise in nitrogen fertilizer prices could also push up phosphate and potash prices. With China's autumn-winter fertilizer demand peak approaching, fertilizer prices could rise further.
Upstream Energy Costs Drive Urea Price Increase
Rising upstream raw material prices are supporting urea price increases and driving up phosphate and potash prices as well. As of September 10, thermal coal prices at northern ports recovered to RMB 853/ton, and LNG prices reached RMB 5,322/ton on September 11, marking a 21.84% increase over the last 60 days. The rise in energy prices could push urea prices higher, and producers may control delivery schedules to adjust market supply.
Autumn-Winter Fertilizer Peak Approaching, Demand Surge Imminent
The upcoming autumn-winter fertilizer season is supporting fertilizer price hikes. As the time for fertilizer preparation shortens, peak demand is expected soon, with market participants remaining optimistic about future demand.
Stable Nitrogen Fertilizer Market, International Market Rebound
In the nitrogen fertilizer sector, urea prices in China remain stable, with small granular urea prices in Shandong, Hebei, and Henan ranging from RMB 1,900 to RMB 2,050/ton.
In the international market, urea prices are rebounding, driven by Indian procurement orders, and are expected to trend upward.
Phosphate Market Expected to Rise on Strong Demand
In the phosphate market, prices in China remain stable for now, with 55% MAP in Hubei priced at RMB 3,250-3,350/ton, and in Shandong at RMB 3,350-3,450/ton. With rising nitrogen fertilizer prices and strong restocking demand from compound fertilizer producers, the phosphate market is expected to rise.
Potash Market Steady with Strong International Demand
In the potash sector, China’s 62% white potash prices at ports range from RMB 2,450 to RMB 2,500/ton, with 62% Russian white potash at border areas priced at RMB 2,300-2,350/ton, and 60% crystal potash in Qinghai at RMB 2,500/ton. With rising autumn fertilizer demand, the potash market is expected to remain steady with a slight upward trend.
Internationally, Brazil’s potash imports reached 9.954 million tons from January to August, up 5.5% year-on-year, while Southeast Asia’s potash imports have also seen significant growth, further supporting potash prices.
Attention: The above information is for commercial reference only due to the diversity of information collected, and Kelewell is not responsible for the authenticity of the data.
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