Potash & Phosphate Fertilizers Market Update
- Camille W.
- Mar 3
- 3 min read
Potash Market Update
Overview: Potash prices rose in China and Northwest Europe, while Southeast Asia and Brazil stayed weak. Russia is considering export limits.
China: Prices hit 3,200 RMB/ton ($441/ton), the highest since May 2023, due to strong demand and limited supply. The government asked importers to release reserves on February 24. 2025 contracts may be finalized earlier than expected.
Northwest Europe: Standard MOP prices rose by €5 to €310-€330/ton (CIF), with strong demand and tight supply. Granular potash remains stable at €340/ton (CIF). Some buyers are uncertain about continued price increases.
New Orleans: A deal at $285/short ton (FOB) led to a drop to $285-$300/short ton, but producers insist the market remains stable. Tariff concerns in the U.S. are fading as spring demand slows.
Southeast Asia: Indonesia’s fertilizer company is still deciding on tenders, keeping the market uncertain. Standard MOP remains at $310/ton (CIF), and granular MOP at $335/ton (CIF).
Brazil: Prices are stable at $320/ton (CIF) with limited trading. April offers range from $325 to $340/ton (CIF), but sales are slow. Some expect prices to reach $360/ton (CIF) by June, though demand remains weak.
Russia: Russia may impose export limits from Q2 2025 to ensure domestic supply.
ICL Financials: Israel Chemicals Ltd. (ICL) reported a Q4 2024 net profit of $70 million, but annual earnings fell 37% to $407 million due to lower prices and sales.
Key Takeaways:
Brazil: Weak market, stable prices.
New Orleans: Prices fell by $15/short ton.
Northwest Europe: Prices remain firm.
China: Prices slightly increased.
Short-Term Outlook: Northwest Europe’s prices are expected to keep rising due to strong demand.
While the potash market experiences its own set of dynamics, the phosphate fertilizers market has also seen notable shifts in supply and pricing trends, driven by regional factors and global supply constraints.
Phosphate Fertilizers (DAP & MAP) Market Update
Prices of diammonium phosphate (DAP) and monoammonium phosphate (MAP) have remained strong due to tight supply, creating a seller's market.
For Brazil, the price of MAP has increased from $630-635 per ton to $635-640, reaching the highest level since March 2023.
In the Baltic Sea, offshore prices for MAP have increased due to higher sales volumes and strong demand, especially from Russia.
China's export of phosphate fertilizers is limited due to restrictions, but there are plans for future exports.
Morocco is a major supplier to Europe, selling at high prices to Europe.
In India, DAP prices are stable, but there's a shortage of new deals due to limited supply and high import costs.
Short-Term Outlook:
Prices have remained stable or slightly increased recently, with limited downward movement expected due to tight supply and concerns about price affordability.
Phosphate fertilizer prices are likely to stay firm in the short term, but may decrease slightly in Q2 if supply improves.
Key Regional Markets:
United States: DAP prices are stable, while MAP prices have risen.
Brazil: Prices for MAP have risen, and demand for phosphate-based fertilizers is strong, despite price concerns.
Europe: Supply is tight, with prices for DAP remaining strong due to limited supply from Tunisia, Jordan, Egypt, and Russia.
India: Prices are stable but imports are limited. There are concerns about high import costs and a shortage of new deals, although some supply agreements are being finalized with Morocco.
China: Export prices are currently not active due to domestic restrictions, but there are plans for future exports.
Other Trends:
NPK (nitrogen-phosphorus-potassium) fertilizer prices have remained firm, with sellers benefiting from limited competition.
In several regions, including the Baltic Sea and Black Sea, prices for complex fertilizers have risen.
Attention: The above information is for commercial reference only due to the diversity of information collected, and Kelewell is not responsible for the authenticity of the data.
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