In November, the Chinese monoammonium phosphate (MAP) market experienced a gradual decline after a sustained uptrend, influenced by export control and supply stabilization policies. With a decrease in demand, the market witnessed a subdued atmosphere in new transactions, leading to a slight retreat in MAP prices after an initial surge. At the beginning of the month, the MAP market saw a continuous upward trend, driven by factors such as relatively tight supply and favorable conditions like limited order acceptance by holding merchants, resulting in a rapid price increase of around 200 RMB/ton within a week. However, in the middle and later part of the month, the market dynamics shifted because of export suspensions and the call for supply stabilization by major associations. This led to a slowdown in downstream raw material procurement, increased profit-oriented selling by some traders, and a slight easing of market focus, with limited actual transactions.
In November, the production of MAP in China was 986,400 tons, a slight decrease of 13,000 tons compared to the previous month, representing a month-on-month decline of 0.13%.
From January to November 2023, the cumulative production of MAP in the Chinese market was approximately 9.68 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.26%. Looking at the entire year, the first half was characterized by a significant decline in MAP production due to sustained weak demand, reaching its lowest point in May with a year-on-year production decrease of around 17% for the period of January to June. In the second half of the year, driven by positive factors such as active international demand and rising costs, prices continued to rise, and supply also increased accordingly.
In October, China's MAP exports were approximately 159,000 tons, representing an 81.71% decrease compared to the previous month.
From January to October, the cumulative MAP export volume was about 1.6956 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.04%. Among the main destination countries, Brazil ranked first with an export volume of approximately 618,200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 92,200 tons or 12.98%. Argentina ranked second with a total export volume of about 242,900 tons, showing a year-on-year increase of approximately 34,900 tons or 16.77%. Australia ranked third with a total export volume of about 143,200 tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of about 49,700 tons or 25.75%. In the first half of the year, due to high inventories in the Brazilian market, the import volume of MAP remained low. Import demand started to pick up in late June, leading to an increase in export volume and prices. However, with the impact of the news of suspended exports from China, MAP export volume experienced a significant decline.
Overall, the current MAP prices remain at a relatively high level, and industry capacity utilization is also high. However, downstream compound fertilizer companies show a weak intention to purchase, and exports are still restricted. Nevertheless, factories temporarily hold some inventory. As the year-end approaches, traders are profitably selling, and those holding low-priced inventory from the previous period are gradually entering the market. The MAP market prices are expected to be influenced to some extent.
Attention: The above price information is for commercial reference only due to the diversity of information collected, and Kelewell is not responsible for the authenticity of the data.
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