Price for Granular Urea:
China's bulk granular urea FOB price is $325.0-330.0 per ton, up by $2-9 per ton.
Black Sea granular urea FOB price is $255.0-275.0 per ton, up by $5 per ton.
Baltic Sea granular urea FOB price is $250.0-270.0 per ton, up by $5 per ton.
Middle East granular urea FOB price is $275.0-285.0 per ton, up by $7-10 per ton.
Brazil granular urea CFR price is $300.0-310.0 per ton, up by $10 per ton.
India CIF price is $339.0-347.0 per ton, unchanged from last week.
Saudi Arabia sold 20,000 tons of June shipment granular urea at an FOB price of $295.0 per ton.
Price for Prilled Urea:
Egypt (Europe) prilled urea FOB price is $286.0-310.0 per ton, up by $3-23 per ton.
Brazil prilled urea CFR price is $305.0-315.0 per ton, up by $5-10 per ton.
Southeast Asia prilled urea CFR price is $320.0-336.0 per ton, with an increase of $11 per ton at the high end.
China prilled urea FOB price is $325.0-330.0 per ton, up by $2-9 per ton.
Indonesia purchased 200,000 tons of June shipment prilled urea at an FOB price of $312.0 per ton.
Why did international urea prices suddenly rise?
1.Rise in Chinese urea prices and lower-than-expected urea exports
Chinese urea prices have risen and are currently at the high end of the international market, causing international urea prices to approach Chinese prices and indicating continued reliance on Chinese urea in the international market.
Urea exports from China are lower than expected. Due to India's procurement tender on April 8th, which was significantly lower than expected, and considering the possibility of China relaxing urea exports in April, international traders have heavily shorted urea. With almost zero urea exports from China in April and an expected small volume of exports in May, international urea traders had to cover their previous short positions, leading to a significant rebound in international urea prices this week.
2. Sharp rebound in international natural gas prices
Recently, natural gas futures prices in the United States and Europe have been continuously rising, reaching new highs in nearly three months, putting cost pressure on urea producers reliant on imported natural gas. If international natural gas prices continue to rise, there is a possibility that some international urea production capacity may be reduced or suspended, which may lead to a tightening of international urea supply.
The sharp rise in international natural gas prices may also stimulate short covering in the international urea market, indirectly contributing to the rebound in international urea prices last week.
3. Significant rebound in international major agricultural product prices
Since the beginning of this year, major agricultural exporting countries such as Brazil and Russia have experienced extreme weather conditions, and the weather in India and the United States is also unfavorable. Under the influence of extreme weather, global major agricultural products may see a significant reduction in production. Futures prices of US corn, wheat, and soybeans have all experienced significant rebounds, with US wheat futures prices reaching new highs since September last year.
Unlike China, major agricultural exporting countries have a certain degree of flexibility in their planting areas, which depends on agricultural product prices. Under relatively unchanged agricultural product demand, this flexible planting area ensures that there is no sustained food crisis globally. With the significant rebound in prices of major agricultural products, it is inevitable that the planting areas of certain countries' major agricultural products will increase. An increase in planting area will inevitably lead to an increase in fertilizer demand, a change that should not be overlooked.
In summary, the rebound in international urea prices last week was not unexpected, but its sustainability depends on the trend of international natural gas prices, when India will re-enter the international market, and when China will be able to export urea in large quantities.
Attention: The above information is for commercial reference only due to the diversity of information collected, and Kelewell is not responsible for the authenticity of the data.
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