After several months of negotiations, the annual potash contract in India was finally introduced on April 4, 2023, when India's main importer IPL signed a 2023 annual potash contract with canpotex, a canadian potash company, at a signed price of CFR 422 USD per ton, with a ship date until September 30, 2023, which is 168 USD per ton lower than the 2022 potash contract price, basically in line with The price of the Indian contract is expected.
In a downward trend of international potash prices, the negotiation of the Chinese and Indian contracts is crucial and has been the focus of international and domestic attention. However, at the end of 2022, the contract negotiations between India and the international potash suppliers have been delayed due to continuous discussions and the fact that international prices are still in a downward trend.
After India signed the contract at 422 USD per ton, according to the normal price difference, China may be 10 USD lower or equal to India, then the price range in China is 410-420 USD per ton, which translates into a domestic RMB import cost of 60% content potassium chloride at about 3161-3235 RMB per ton, but this price is slightly different from the current domestic market price.
Therefore, one has to ask whether China will be able to stabilize the domestic market after the Indian contract is signed.
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