Thailand's Demand for Fertilizers Expected to Keep Growing
The decline in compound fertilizer imports prices and the rise in rice export prices have increased Thai farmers' purchasing power for fertilizers, boosting demand and leading to year-on-year growth in imports of urea, NPK, NP, and NPS fertilizers.
Rising Rice Prices Drive Fertilizer Demand
According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the average export price of Thai rice increased by 24% year-on-year from January to June, reaching $640.90 per ton. This price increase, combined with the decline in fertilizer import prices, has improved farmers' purchasing power, thereby increasing overall fertilizer purchases.
Lower Compound Fertilizer Prices Boost Imports
At the beginning of this year, prices for NPK 15-15-15/16-16-16 in Southeast Asia and NPS 16-20-0+13S in Thailand decreased, leading to a 95% year-on-year surge in Thailand’s compound fertilizer imports, reaching 557,800 tons—the highest level since 2018. Trade data shows that Russia remains Thailand's main supplier, with deliveries more than doubling year-on-year. In contrast, supplies from China fell by 62% year-on-year to 16,400 tons due to export restrictions, particularly on potassium-containing fertilizers.
Rebound in Potassium Chloride Demand
Thailand’s potassium chloride (KCl) imports rebounded in the first half of this year, increasing by 44% year-on-year to 421,500 tons, with major suppliers being Canada, Belarus, and Laos. Although high prices last year led to inventory buildups, the price drop this year has improved buyers’ purchasing power, driving the recovery in KCl imports.
Increase in Urea Stocks
In the first half of this year, Thailand’s urea imports grew by 15%, reaching 1.4 million tons. This growth was mainly driven by increased deliveries from the Middle East and Brunei. Although imports from Malaysia declined, the increase from Brunei partially offset this impact. Thai importers increased urea purchases in the first quarter of 2024 to cope with reduced domestic stocks and rising demand.
India's Urea Stocks Decrease in July
Between 2023 and 2024, India imported 7.042 million tons of urea and 10.653 million tons of phosphate and potash fertilizers. Of these, 1.865 million tons of urea and 2.258 million tons of phosphate and potash fertilizers were imported from China.
Recent data shows that in July, India’s urea sales increased from 4.53 million tons in the same period last year to 4.65 million tons. Production also rose from 2.48 million tons in July last year to 2.65 million tons.
Due to increased domestic consumption, national urea stocks further decreased, reaching 8.7 million tons by the end of August. As of mid-July, stocks were around 10 million tons, down from 11 million tons at the end of June and 11.3 million tons at the end of May.
Domestic urea demand is expected to remain strong in August. Last week, India’s meteorological department predicted that rainfall during the remainder of the monsoon season in August and September would be “above normal,” exceeding 106% of the long-term average.
Russia’s Potash Exports Surge by 70% in First Half of the Year
In the first half of this year, Russia's potash exports reached 6.7 million tons, 1.7 times higher than the same period last year. Urea ranked second in export volume, with a consecutive six-month year-on-year increase of 23%, reaching 4.6 million tons. In contrast, phosphate fertilizer exports slightly decreased by 3% to 2.5 million tons.
Following a decline in 2022, Russia’s potash exports saw a strong recovery in 2023. This growth reflects a broader trend in Russia’s fertilizer industry, with total fertilizer export revenue increasing by 70% in 2022, reaching $16.7 billion, despite a 10% drop in export volumes compared to 2021.
Attention: The above information is for commercial reference only due to the diversity of information collected, and Kelewell is not responsible for the authenticity of the data.
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