In the first half of the year, the global fertilizer market has shown mixed results. Fertilizer prices vary across regions, and due to the cautious attitude of almost all buyers, the overall market sentiment is relatively weak. Prices of urea, nitrates, phosphates, and potash have declined compared to the same period last year.
Urea:
Due to traders replenishing their stocks, the price of Egyptian urea rose by $24/ton within just two days. Prices in the Arabian Gulf and Southeast Asia are higher, while Iran's granular urea supply for June stands at 190,000 tons. Overall, urea prices have decreased compared to the same period last year, with Egypt experiencing the largest drop, 50% lower than mid-May 2023. The US saw a decrease of about 20%, the Arabian Gulf and Southeast Asia dropped by 12%, Iran and the Baltic Sea fell by 5-6%, and Brazil's level remained stable compared to last year. India's domestic production increased, with stocks nearing 10.5 million tons. Unless demand in major import regions recovers, ample supply and limited demand are expected to exert downward pressure on urea prices.
Ammonia:
Ammonia prices have risen compared to a year ago. The shortage of ammonia in Europe is expected to generate some spot demand, while India is also expected to see more demand. Supply in June is still expected to be tight, especially in Trinidad. Since May 2023, prices in many regions have increased, for example, the Arabian Gulf saw a $60/ton rise. The US market's focus is on the upcoming supplementary demand, but Trinidad's supply remains a key concern for buyers.
Nitrates:
Nitrate prices are under downward pressure, in stark contrast to the trend of price increases by producers in May 2023. Current purchasing demand remains insufficient. Adverse weather and significant declines in urea prices have led to lower ammonium nitrate demand so far in 2024.
Urea Ammonium Nitrate (UAN):
Demand for UAN in Europe remains sluggish. Currently, production conditions in most parts of Europe are good. Despite prices being lower than the same period in 2023, UAN demand has been consistently low in 2024.
Ammonium Sulfate:
Demand for ammonium sulfate from Turkey, Brazil, Southeast Asia, and Europe is expected to be unstable. Natural disasters in Brazil have caused significant fluctuations in demand in 2024. Global ammonium sulfate prices have declined compared to 2023, with mid-May prices down 9-16% year-over-year. To prevent excessive inventory accumulation, the industry will reduce production capacity by an average of 45-50% in 2024.
Phosphates:
In the second week of May, India's diammonium phosphate (DAP) prices remained unchanged and continued into the first week of June, with prices holding firm. Meanwhile, China's monoammonium phosphate (MAP) prices have slightly increased. In the US, prices for DAP and MAP in New Orleans are lower. In Brazil, products from Russia and China are still being sold. The impact of the devastating floods in southern Brazil is still being assessed.
Potash:
Throughout most of 2024, global potash trade has been sluggish, primarily due to two reasons: India has not yet finalized its first six-month potash import contract, and China has shown no interest in signing any agreements. Excluding China and India, many potash producers believe that with increased exports from Belarus and Russia to international markets, supply stability will continue to improve. Demand is expected to remain stable to strong, creating a balanced overall outlook.
Attention: The above information is for commercial reference only due to the diversity of information collected, and Kelewell is not responsible for the authenticity of the data.
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