China Fertilizer Market Analysis – Early April 2025

Market Foreword

As the spring planting season enters its final stage, China’s fertilizer market is experiencing a period of high raw material costs, policy uncertainty, and regional supply-demand imbalances.From the stalemate in phosphate fertilizer pricing to the volatility in global potash markets, and from urea’s short-term rally to cautious optimism in the compound fertilizer sector, each segment reflects unique pressures and opportunities.This report provides a structured analysis of developments across major fertilizer categories in early April 2025.

1. Phosphate Fertilizers: High Costs, Export Policy as the Key Variable

Market Overview:

• Overall prices remain stagnant, under triple pressure from high costs, weak demand, and policy uncertainty.

• Raw material prices such as sulfur and phosphate rock remain elevated, with some producers planning output cuts or maintenance.

MAP Pricing Trends:

• 55% Powdered MAP (Hubei): Mainstream transactions at RMB 3,350–3,400/ton; few new orders reported.

• 73% Industrial MAP: Quoted at RMB 6,450–6,500/ton; actual transactions subject to negotiation.

DAP Pricing Trends:

• 64% Granular DAP (Hubei): Ex-factory price at RMB 3,750–3,850/ton; restocking driven by immediate needs only.

Market Logic & Outlook:

• With spring plowing nearing completion, demand is softening and market sentiment is increasingly cautious.

• In the absence of export policy progress, phosphate prices are likely to remain in a fluctuating consolidation phase.

2. Potash Market: Strong Global Support, Domestic Pressures Mounting

International Pricing Overview:

• Southeast Asia CFR: $330–$350/ton

• Brazil CFR: $345–$350/ton

• Nola Port (U.S.): $310–$320/short ton

• Europe/Middle East FOB: Generally up by $5–$15/ton

China Domestic Market Performance:

• MOP (Muriate of Potash): Domestic prices declined by RMB 50–200/ton amid stagnant transactions.

  • Domestic major producers are operating at 60–70% capacity, with most supply flowing into national reserves.

• Mannheim SOP (Sulfate of Potash):

  • 50% powder: ~RMB 3,850/ton

  • 52% powder: ~RMB 4,000/ton

• Resource-based SOP (e.g., Lop Nor, Xinjiang): Prices stable at around RMB 3,350/ton.

Outlook:

• Cautious sentiment dominates the domestic market.

• Inventory levels at ports and global tender activity remain key indicators to watch.

3. Urea Market: High-Level Stability, Export and Futures Drive Sentiment

Price Review & Market Movements:

• Over the past two weeks, prices rose by RMB 100–150/ton and have now stabilized in the RMB 1,890–1,960/ton range.

• Some producers have slightly lowered quotes by RMB 10–40/ton due to phased order fulfillment and slowed downstream restocking.

International Market:

• On April 6, India’s CFR price reached $395/ton, equivalent to approximately RMB 2,500/ton domestically.

Market Logic & Outlook:

• The market is entering a correction phase; in the absence of fresh export orders, prices may face downward pressure.

4. Compound Fertilizers: Supported by High Nitrogen, Short-Term Volatility Likely

Market Performance:

• Prices remain firm, primarily due to rising urea costs impacting high-nitrogen formulations.

• Most companies are focused on fulfilling previous orders, with few new deals reported.

Pricing Range:

Product Type	Mainstream Price (RMB/ton)
45% Sulfur-based Compound	2,970–3,100
45% Chloride-based Compound	2,500–2,680

Demand Structure & Outlook:

• Corn fertilizer prices are inverted in North China, suppressing demand; rice fertilizer movement in the South remains stable.

• If urea prices adjust downward, compound fertilizer prices may enter a consolidation phase.

• Future performance will depend on raw material volatility and the pace of downstream restocking.

Summary Table

Fertilizer Type	Key Trend
Phosphate	High costs + export uncertainty = continued volatility
Potash	Global price strength, domestic weakness, ongoing market tug-of-war
Urea	Stabilizing at high levels, driven by export expectations
Compound	Strong cost support, but limited demand

Outlook

Looking ahead, China’s fertilizer market will continue to be influenced by global price movements, domestic policy signals, and seasonal changes.Phosphate pricing remains closely tied to updates on export clearance, while potash and urea markets are increasingly sensitive to global trade dynamics and speculative sentiment.For compound fertilizer manufacturers and traders, managing upstream cost fluctuations while adapting to shifting downstream rhythms will be essential in the coming weeks.

Note: The above information is for commercial reference only due to the diversity of data sources collected. Kelewell assumes no responsibility for the authenticity of the figures provided.