Price Changes of Urea, Ammonium Sulfate, Ammonium Phosphate, Triple Superphosphate, and Potash from September 8th to September 15th.
Urea
The upcoming Indian tender has subdued activity in the urea market this week. There are varying opinions on prices, but everyone expects them to be higher than the previous Indian tender. This tender saw bids from 18 suppliers with a total of 3.62177 million tons.
On the other hand, people are using Russian and Middle Eastern offshore prices as reference, suggesting that the offshore prices should be above CFR $420 per ton, but Indian tender prices often surprise, with current estimated prices ranging from CFR $400-450 per ton.
Buyers from other regions are waiting for confirmation of Indian prices before taking further action. Resistance from Brazilian buyers is forcing import prices down, and this trend seems to continue, weakening Western markets to some extent.
Rising freight rates and limited supply in China indicate that urea prices will rise starting from October, but whether demand will surge at higher prices remains to be seen.
Ammonium Sulfate
Northwest Europe: Supply is under further pressure due to an accident at a major ammonium sulfate producer's factory. The spot price for standard ammonium sulfate, influenced by new trades for October, is $192-214 per ton FOB Northwest Europe. A total of 6,000 tons of 2mm granular ammonium sulfate was sold this week at prices of €255-265 per ton FOB, with almost no remaining shipments for October.
China: According to the latest quotes, the price for standard ammonium sulfate in China this week is $165-170 per ton FOB China. MMA grade ammonium sulfate prices remain stable at an offshore price of $145 per ton. The price for caprolactam-grade Ammonium Sulfate is $185-190 per ton FOB China. Some Brazilian buyers returning to the ammonium sulfate market this week for seasonal demand preparations have led to a significant increase in supplier quotes for squeezed ammonium sulfate.
United States: AdvanSix has announced new prices, effective from September 15th, with a $10 per ton increase in terminal prices. However, overall prices remained relatively stable this week, with barge prices in Norco still at $255-260 per ton FOB ($276-280 per ton CFR).
Brazil: The market remained calm this week, with holidays and urea prices keeping buyers on the sidelines. Prices for standard ammonium sulfate are $195-205 per ton CFR, and prices for squeezed granular ammonium sulfate are $210-215 per ton CFR.
Vietnam: A Vietnamese importer purchased 8,000 tons of standard capro grade ammonium sulfate from China late last week, with loading costs for October at $160 per ton. Another importer received quotes of $170-175 per ton CFR Haiphong for MMA grade ammonium sulfate but did not finalize a deal.
Indonesia: Pupuk Indonesia issued a tender to purchase 10,000 tons of standard capro grade ammonium sulfate for shipment to Boom Baru Port in November to December.
Ammonium Phosphate
Ammonium di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) prices have risen in the East of the Suez region due to increased purchases by Pakistan, ongoing demand in Bangladesh, and rising prices for phosphoric acid in India.
West of Suez: Due to limited market activity in Brazil, prices for mono-ammonium phosphate (MAP) have stabilized at $530-535 per ton CFR. Some suppliers expect a quick recovery in demand after several months of slowness, but prices for diammonium phosphate (DAP) in Argentina remain stable at $575 per ton CFR.
India: Onshore prices for DAP have risen to $590-595 per ton CFR.
Bangladesh: Another private sector tender has been issued by relevant authorities, seeking to purchase DAP and triple superphosphate (TSP), with a deadline of September 24th.
Pakistan: Importers purchased 115,000 tons of DAP from Morocco, Saudi Arabia, and China this week, with the latest transactions reaching as high as $605-610 per ton CFR. Currently, 330,000 tons of DAP are planned for shipment from Morocco, Australia, Saudi Arabia, and China in September to October.
China: Prices for DAP in China remained stable this week at $570-578 per ton FOB. A trading company sold 5,000 tons of DAP to Central America at $578 per ton FOB, for shipment in October. Quotes for Thailand were at $570 per ton offshore. Due to manufacturers not receiving any additional export quotas, the supply of DAP in the fourth quarter may be tight. Suppliers continue to offer TMAP at an offshore price of $800-810 per ton.
Philippines: In a recent tender by Atlas Fertilizer Corporation for 8,000 tons of DAP, no bids or contracts were made. The latest trade data shows that DAP imports in July decreased by more than half to 8,500 tons compared to the same period last year, with China being the only supplier. Imports from China decreased by 27% from January to July, totaling 49,900 tons, mainly due to a 19% decrease in imports from China to 49,200 tons.
Australia: Fertilizer producer Incitec Pivot (IPL) has lowered its phosphorus fertilizer production forecast for this fiscal year to 870,000 to 880,000 tons due to reduced sulfur supply.
United States: Prices for phosphate rock phosphate (TSP) in the United States rose this week due to strong international markets, temporary production restrictions, and lower water levels downstream of the Mississippi River. Prices for mono-ammonium phosphate (MAP) increased by $14 per ton to $630-653 per ton FOB Norco. Prices for diammonium phosphate (DAP) increased by $6 per ton to $520-535 per ton FOB Norco.
Turkey: Due to strong domestic demand and international sentiment, prices for DAP in Turkey remained at $600-610 per ton this week. Importers are waiting for goods purchased from various sources in the previous months to arrive. The price for Romanian DAP remains stable at $645-655 per ton bagged FCA, with a dealer offering Tunisian prices at $670 per ton bagged FCA.
Morocco's OCP announced sales for this week: 35,000 tons of DAP/MAP for Latin America at an offshore price of approximately $535-545 per ton, with loading in November; 50,000 tons of DAP for Pakistan at an offshore price of approximately $565 per ton, with loading in September to October; 10,000 tons of DAP for Western Europe with net prices of $550-585 per ton for loading in October to November.
Tunisia's GCT reports an offshore price of $570-590 per ton for DAP. The index for East African DAP prices is rising, reflecting an increase in CFR levels in India. Prices for mono-ammonium phosphate (MAP) in South Africa have risen to $535-540 per ton CFR.
Potash prices in Belgium are below $575 per ton. Last week's DAP prices were $605 per ton. A German distributor reported bulk sales prices for DAP at $575-580 per ton locally; DAP prices in France have risen to $580 per ton; DAP prices in the UK are $535-540 per ton delivered in bags; and due to increased demand, DAP prices in Italy have been pushed up to $550-570 per ton (big bags).
Short-term prices for DAP are well supported due to rapidly increasing demand in South Asia. Additionally, ammonia prices are exerting additional upward pressure on prices. Once demand weakens in major markets, prices for goods shipped in November to December will stabilize.
Triple Superphosphate (TSP)
TSP prices in Brazil remain stable at $415-430 per ton CFR.
TSP prices in the UK are £430 per ton.
Bangladesh authorities have issued another private sector tender to purchase DAP and TSP, with a deadline of September 24th.
Potash Fertilizer
Current global potash prices are mainly stable due to subdued trade. However, increased demand in October/November will lead to supply shortages, causing granular potash prices in Europe to rise and offshore prices in Norco, the United States, to increase.
The preliminary permit for Brazil's Potássio do Brasil company's 2.2 million tons/year Autazes potash project has been suspended by a Brazilian court, alleging incomplete compliance with the required procedures.
China's standard potash stockpiles at ports rose to 2.3 million tons in early September, up from 2 million tons a year ago. An estimated 600,000 tons are in bonded storage.
Mosaic anticipates that third-quarter potash sales will approach their previously expected high range of 2.1-2.3 million tons due to strong demand. Their forecast for third-quarter potash prices remains unchanged at $250-300 per ton FOB.
Tight global supplies of potash and potassium sulfate will prevent prices from falling, but low demand in key markets like Brazil will prevent significant price increases.
Attention: The above price information is for commercial reference only due to the diversity of information collected, and Kelewell is not responsible for the authenticity of the data.
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