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Writer's pictureAntonia Z

Changes in international fertilizer prices from September 1 to September 8

Price Changes of Urea, Ammonium Sulfate, Ammonium Phosphate, Triple Superphosphate, and Potash from September 1st to September 8th


Urea


A sudden shift by Chinese exporters has reversed the trend in the international market. Domestic suppliers redirected urea to the domestic market to suppress domestic prices. Meanwhile, India announced a new tender, causing Egyptian urea prices to skyrocket, with local urea prices rising by $80 per ton on September 4th. The international market is currently looking for a new level of trade that can be restored.


In the previous Indian tender, China sold 1.1 million tons of urea, but in the next tender, there may be no Chinese urea participation. India's RCF will bid on September 15th, with a target to purchase over one million tons of urea, and supply will depend on the price and India's willingness to accept the price.


The reduction in Chinese exports will keep the market tight in the fourth quarter and favor other producers in raising prices in the coming weeks.


Ammonium Sulfate


This week, the standard Ammonium Sulfate prices in Northwestern Europe dropped to $161-192 per ton FOB. A producer sold 4,000 tons of standard caprolactam-grade Ammonium Sulfate to the Mediterranean at an offshore price of $161 per ton, aiming to compete with Chinese sources at an onshore price of $170 per ton. For October, prices for 4,000 tons of 2mm granules and 3,000 tons of 3mm granules in Northwestern Europe are FOB260-265 euros per ton and FOB315-320 euros per ton, respectively.


Chinese standard Ammonium Sulfate prices increased this week. According to trade and indications, the offshore price is $160-175 per ton. The price for MMA-grade Ammonium Sulfate this week is reported as FOB145 per ton. According to the latest market trades, the prices for crushed granules and caprolactam-grade Ammonium Sulfate in China this week are FOB180-185 per ton. Some crushed granule manufacturers are reported to be out of stock currently, which has driven up prices, after selling a significant amount of crushed granules to international traders previously.


South Korea's PungNong completed a tender purchase of 3,000 tons of caprolactam-grade Ammonium Sulfate, priced at $165-170 per ton FOB China, to be shipped to Changseon Port by October 3rd.


The Philippines' Atlas issued a tender to purchase 8,000 tons of standard caprolactam-grade Ammonium Sulfate, to be shipped to Sangi Port by October 10th. The tender ends on September 12th.


Brazil's bids and offers increased significantly this week, on par with urea prices, but market liquidity remains low. Farmers are focusing on soybean fertilizers, reducing purchases of fertilizers for maize application, which limits the demand for nitrogen fertilizers. Prices for crushed granule Ammonium Sulfate are $200-225 per ton CFR, and standard Ammonium Sulfate prices are $205-215 per ton CFR.


Supported by urea prices and the approach of the harvest season, U.S. Ammonium Sulfate prices are reported as $250-260 per ton FOB, higher than $240-260 per ton FOB NOLA.


Ammonium Phosphate


Demand in India continued to rise this week, leading to an increase in prices for DAP in the Eastern Mediterranean region, while prices in the Americas remained relatively stable.


The price of DAP in India rose from $552-556 per ton CFR last week to $572-579 per ton CFR. In the September 4th procurement tender, Indian importer RCF received the lowest offer for Phosphoric One Ammonium (10-50) at $550 per ton CFR, about $50 per ton higher than the inquiry price on August 10th. Other offers for Phosphoric One Ammonium 10-50 were higher at $570 per ton and $575 per ton, respectively. The offer for DAP was $547.85-564.50 per ton CFR. In RCF's tender on August 10th, they purchased 20,000 tons of Phosphoric One Ammonium at around $507 per ton for delivery in October.


The latest trades show that the price of DAP in China has dropped to FOB $560-565 per ton. Several manufacturers and trading companies signed contracts for DAP with Bangladesh this week at FOB $560-565 per ton, after private sector tenders for DAP were confirmed last week. Driven by higher CFR levels and existing rapid demand, Chinese suppliers are shifting their focus back to India and Pakistan.


Thai DAP remains at $580-590 per ton. With the main season in Thailand likely to end in late September, the window for importing new goods is closing. Earlier this week, a ship carrying 6,600 tons of DAP arrived from China. Atlas in the Philippines completed a tender earlier this week to purchase 8,000 tons of DAP, to be shipped to Sangi Port by October 10th.


Due to changing procurement requirements in Indonesia's Kujang, Pupuk Indonesia has canceled the tender for the purchase of an unspecified quantity of DAP for its subsidiary Pupuk Kujang, which was due on July 20th. The latest trade data shows that DAP imports in July increased by 11% year-on-year, reaching 37,900 tons. China supplied 22,000 tons, lower than the 29,100 tons in the same period last year. Deliveries from Vietnam increased from 5,000 tons a year ago to 15,900 tons. China's limited export supply forced importers to increase purchases from Vietnam this year. Indonesia's imports from January to July decreased by 42% to 120,700 tons, primarily due to a 41% year-on-year decrease in imports from China to 59,500 tons. Vietnam accounted for 61,200 tons, far higher than 17,400 tons.


Meanwhile, prices for Ammonium Phosphate/Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) in Europe and the Western Mediterranean remained relatively stable.


Brazilian prices for Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP) remained stable at $530-535 per ton CFR, with trading activity continuing to be sluggish this week. Importers are waiting for price declines in the coming months. Brazil's imports of MAP from January to August reached 3.37 million tons, a 7.2% increase compared to the same period last year, reaching a new high. Shipments from Russia dominated supply, with Russian suppliers accounting for 1.64 million tons, a 17% increase from the same period last year. Imports from Moroccan phosphate producer OCP increased by 7% to 882,000 tons. Suppliers from Saudi Arabia accounted for 592,000 tons, an increase of just over 20% from the same period last year. Imports of Monoammonium Phosphate from the United States decreased, with imports down 28% to 19,000 tons. Due to continued export restrictions, China's Monoammonium Phosphate shipments decreased by 43% to 66,000 tons. In response to fertilizer demand for the 2023-24 soybean crop, Brazil pushed up prices for Monoammonium Phosphate in the national import market and in the state of Parana by 12%.


The price of Ammonium Phosphate/Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) in Argentina dropped to $545-555 per ton CFR. Uruguay had a sale of 500 tons of Monoammonium Phosphate from China at around $540 per ton, and Uruguay may import about 50,000 to 60,000 tons of MAP from now until the end of the year to meet demand. U.S. barged prices for DAP hit a low of NOLA FOB $520 per ton, while trading prices for Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP) were NOLA FOB $625-630 per ton.


Belgium's MAP remained stable at $600 per ton FCA. The price for MAP in Rouen, France, was €560-565 per ton. Romanian MAP prices remained stable at $640-655 per ton. Turkish MAP prices were around $600 per ton this week, with limited supply.


Russia is set to sell 30,000 tons of MAP to India in late October or early November at a net price of about $520 per ton FOB. Two batches totaling 15,000-18,000 tons of Russian MAP were also traded at a price of $505 per ton CFR, destined for Colombia and Central America. Phosagro plans to cut production of MAP at the Cherepovets plant in half between October 24th and November 17th. Russia has imposed a 7% tariff on finished fertilizer exports, the latest move by the Russian government to encourage producers to focus on meeting domestic demand for phosphates while increasing tax revenue from inevitable overseas exports.


Moroccan phosphate company OCP reported a nearly 37% decrease in revenue for the second quarter of this year due to falling prices. They announced this week that they sold a total of 110,000 tons of MAP to India for November, with an offshore price of about $550-560 per ton. Prices for MAP in Tunisia and Egypt dropped to FOB $570-590 per ton and FOB $565-590 per ton, respectively. South Africa has strong domestic demand but low imports, keeping the supply of Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP) tight.


Supported by tight supply, prices for MAP in the Eastern Mediterranean will remain strong, with continued demand. If India extends subsidies from October to March, this will further support MAP prices in the short term. However, with weakening demand, international prices are expected to come under pressure from November to December. Prices for Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP) in the Western Mediterranean will decline, with prices in the U.S. market expected to drop after October.


Triple Superphosphate


OCP in Morocco sold a total of 60,000 tons of TSP to Asia (excluding India) for October, with FOB prices at $425-430 per ton. The company also sold 5,000 tons to Latin America in October at an offshore price of about $405-415 per ton and 6,000 tons to Western Europe in October at an offshore price of about $405-415 per ton.


Brazil's TSP prices remained stable at $415-430 per ton CFR.


Potash Fertilizer


As the market focuses more on nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers, the global potash market is progressing slowly. Standard potash prices in Southeast Asia increased slightly, while U.S. NOLA offshore prices declined, with lower trade volumes helping to maintain stable prices.


Currently, demand in Europe remains strong, with buyers starting to prepare for spring and concerns about potential price increases. India continues to increase its purchases of potash, and Fact company conducted another tender to purchase 6,000 tons of standard potash.


The Russian government's recent decree imposes a 7% tariff and minimum tax rates on fertilizer exports, including potash, effective September 1st, to expand its tax revenues. Manufacturers have little choice but to raise market prices, potentially incurring additional costs. The minimum tax rate for potash is 1,800 rupees per ton ($19 per ton).


To adapt to market conditions, Nutrien has indefinitely suspended raising potash production capacity to 18 million tons per year. EUROCHEM reported record shipments on the Volga-Kama Railway in August.


While there are some bullish signs for the fourth quarter, prices may remain stable in the coming months, with increased demand from Southeast Asia, the United States, and Brazil. Corn prices will determine the strength of demand in Brazil. Meanwhile, recent potash prices remain strong, and potash sulfate supply is tight, which is expected to continue to drive up potash sulfate prices.


Attention: The above price information is for commercial reference only due to the diversity of information collected, and Kelewell is not responsible for the authenticity of the data.






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