Price Changes of Urea, Ammonium Sulfate, Ammonium Phosphate, Triple Superphosphate, Potash Fertilizers, and Compound Fertilizers from January 5 - January 12.
Urea:
Egypt: Due to a surge in short-covering by trading companies, the urea prices have increased by $40 per ton within a few days. The FOB price for large granular urea is $375 per ton, and FOB prices for urea across North Africa have significantly risen to $380 per ton.
Brazil: The trading price for large granular urea in Brazil has reached CFR $345 per ton, with a quoted price of CFR $350 per ton.
USA: While the February FOB price for urea in the USA is around $310 per ton, the March FOB price is at a lower value of $320 per ton.
India: In a tender on January 4th, NFL India ordered only 647,000 tons of urea. The lowest CFR bid on the West Coast was $316.8 per ton, and on the East Coast, it was $329.4 per ton, with a significant portion (about 350,000 tons) possibly originating from Russia. There are reports that most producers in the Middle East seem to reject supplying to India at the FOB price of $300-306 per ton. This has led trading companies to cover short positions in the European market, triggering the recent price hike.
The rise in urea prices has raised concerns among some suppliers. As it is still the first half of January, especially European buyers are expected to remain cautious. Considering India's massive urea stock and robust domestic production, India is expected to be in a favorable position.
Ammonium Sulfate:
Northwest Europe:
Due to a decrease in the operating rate of caprolactam plants, the spot market supply in Northwest Europe remains limited, but the tight supply is balanced by relatively weak demand.
The FOB price for standard caprolactam-grade ammonium sulfate this week is €160-175 per ton, equivalent to $175-192 per ton. The overall liquidity of granular ammonium sulfate remains weak, with FOB prices in Northwest Europe ranging from $241-309 per ton. European producers will focus on shipments to the USA in the first quarter. In Germany, Domo's granular ammonium sulfate factory price is €280 per ton.
China: The FOB price for standard ammonium sulfate is $125-132 per ton. This week, 6,000 tons of standard ammonium sulfate were sold at a price of FOB $135 per ton, destined for Brazil in February. The FOB price for granular ammonium sulfate is $140-150 per ton. Demand for squeezed ammonium sulfate has slightly increased this week, but new transactions are limited due to continued weak demand in Brazil. 50,000 tons of squeezed ammonium sulfate were sold at a price of FOB $140 per ton for shipment to Africa in February.
Brazil: The overall price of squeezed granular ammonium sulfate in Brazil remains stable, with a CFR price of $165-170 per ton, while the CFR price for standard ammonium sulfate is $140-145 per ton.
East Coast of Mexico: A demand for 35,000 tons of ammonium sulfate has emerged. The CFR price for standard ammonium sulfate is approximately $189-190 per ton, and the CFR price for granular ammonium sulfate is $200-215 per ton.
Malaysia: The CFR price for MMA-grade ammonium sulfate is around $120 per ton, while caprolactam-grade ammonium sulfate is around $130 per ton.
Ammonium Phosphate:
India: RCF is expected to announce a tender for phosphates soon. Although current stocks of diammonium phosphate are sufficient, at around 1.9 million tons, demand is expected to rise in the second quarter. Import volumes of diammonium phosphate in January are limited, with only three ships from Morocco and Saudi Arabia.
Pakistan: Approximately 180,000 tons of supply are expected to arrive in 2024. Stable diammonium phosphate production by the Fauji plant in January to February will further help boost stocks. Over the past few weeks, domestic phosphate prices have been under pressure, and some dealers have reduced the price of diammonium phosphate from 13,000 rupees per 50 kg in early December to 11,500 rupees per 50 kg.
China:
Export restrictions and a lack of new export quotas are expected to persist until after February.
China currently cannot supply ammonium phosphate to the international market. The FOB price for diammonium phosphate remains at $580-592 per ton. A trading company will load 6,000 tons of diammonium phosphate for Thailand this month, with the agreement originally reached in October 2023. These goods were approved for export last year after customs inspection.
Vietnam: The CFR price for diammonium phosphate from Russia is about $630 per ton. Importers expect more Russian goods to enter Vietnam this year, possibly replacing some of the Chinese market share.
Australia: In November 2023, Australia imported over 50,000 tons of monoammonium phosphate, with 57% coming from China and the rest from Saudi Arabia. This brought the total import volume in 2023 to 745,000 tons, with Saudi Arabia accounting for 31%, China for 26%, Morocco for 21%, and the United States for 17%. This represents a year-on-year decrease compared to almost 1 million tons in the same period in 2022 and 1.1 million tons in 2021.
Brazil: The Brazilian market is in a wait-and-see mode, with CFR prices stable at $560 per ton for 11-52 fertilizer. There are reports of a $30 per ton price decrease.
USA: The FOB Nora transaction price for diammonium phosphate is $580-615 per ton, higher than the initial price of $575 per ton this week. The price of monoammonium phosphate is reduced by $5 per ton to $625 per ton.
Benelux: The price of diammonium phosphate is around $650 per ton (590-600 euros per ton). Insufficient demand in Italy has led to a decline in the price of diammonium phosphate.
Morocco: OCP reports that less than 5,000 tons of diammonium phosphate were sold to Western Europe in January, and 31,000 tons were sold to Latin America in January and February, with an FOB price of $550-590 per ton.
The absence of ammonium phosphate supply from China may give opportunities to India and other suppliers. The rise in domestic prices in the USA further pushes prices for non-Russian/Moroccan producers.
Triple Superphosphate:
Brazil: The CFR price for Triple Superphosphate is around $420-430 per ton.
Tunisia: The FOB price for Triple Superphosphate is $395-435 per ton.
France: The FOB bulk price for Triple Superphosphate is around €480 per ton.
Bulgaria: Starting from December 7th, Agropolychim's pricing for Triple Superphosphate in Devnya has remained at €480 per ton.
Potassium Fertilizer:
Due to continued low liquidity, the global potash market has seen almost no change this week. With further price declines in Brazil, Europe, South Africa, Thailand, and Vietnam, low activity maintains bearish sentiment.
In the first quarter, Nutrien offers granular potash at $385 per ton at the Midwest port, with a $30 per ton increase in freight for the second quarter.
Continued weak trade activity will continue to put downward pressure on prices. However, demand in Brazil may emerge at the end of the first quarter, potentially preventing further price declines.
Compound Fertilizers:
Import prices for compound fertilizers in China and Southeast Asia have slightly increased, but prices in the Spanish and German markets have fallen due to sluggish demand in Europe.
Weak demand will lead to further price declines in some markets, including Europe. However, an increase in seasonal demand, expectations of early resolution of subsidy levels in India, and a more stable global nitrogen market will help stabilize compound fertilizer prices in the coming weeks.
Attention: The above price information is for commercial reference only due to the diversity of information collected, and Kelewell is not responsible for the authenticity of the data.
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