Price Changes in Urea, Ammonium Sulfate, Ammonium Phosphate, Triple Superphosphate, and Potash Fertilizers from August 25th to September 1st
Urea
Due to weak demand and seasonal factors, urea prices have declined in most regions this week, and industry experts widely anticipate that prices may continue to drop.
Iranian producers have canceled their bids, while India has seen consistently high sales in August, with a 600,000-ton increase compared to the previous year, indicating the possibility of tenders in September.
China's urea production continues to grow, reaching a record 30.79 million tons in the first half of 2023. This year's production is expected to exceed 60 million tons, a 3-million-ton increase from 2022, and exports are expected to rise.
In Brazil, a major market, low market response is attributed to corn prices and short selling, dissuading buyers from participating. The latest price for granular urea is approximately $345 per ton CFR.
This weak trend is expected to persist into September until more demand materializes, causing prices to exhibit a downward trend during this month. However, increased demand in Brazil, India, and Europe in the fourth quarter is expected to prevent further declines.
Ammonium Sulfate
Tight supply has led to a significant increase in the offshore price of standard-grade ammonium sulfate in Northwest Europe, but the impact on granular ammonium sulfate prices remains limited due to persistently low demand. Buyers and sellers typically set prices for standard ammonium sulfate in the range of 180-190 euros per ton (offshore price of 195-206 dollars per ton), an increase of approximately 20 dollars per ton from last week.
A major plant in Belgium has already reduced production and plans further reductions in September and October, while another plant intends to lower its operating rate by 20 percentage points from September's 70% to start in October. Overall, granular trade remained stable this week, with prices showing little change, ranging between 250-320 euros per ton offshore.
Standard ammonium sulfate prices in China saw a slight decrease this week to 150-160 dollars per ton FOB. Pressure from weak demand for granular products has been putting pressure on prices, keeping prices in the north relatively low. FOB prices for MMA-grade ammonium sulfate are 135-140 dollars per ton. According to the latest market indications, FOB prices for granular and caprolactam-grade ammonium sulfate remained stable at 175-185 dollars per ton this week. However, granular ammonium sulfate FOB prices have generally been below 150 dollars per ton this week. Limited demand from Brazilian importers this week has resulted in reduced purchases of granular ammonium sulfate over the past two to three weeks, increasing inventories and leading to a drop in price levels.
The sentiment in the Southeast Asian market is bearish, with limited buying interest, as buyers seek lower-priced ammonium sulfate to align with the recent decline in urea prices. Reduced rainfall due to the El Niño phenomenon has also suppressed demand for ammonium sulfate, with Vietnamese tender prices for standard ammonium sulfate goods ranging from 150 to 160 dollars per ton CFR. There were no major transactions this week.
In Vietnam, domestic prices for standard ammonium sulfate from China are 4000-5200 Vietnamese dong per kilogram (166-216 dollars per ton), bagged in warehouses, a decrease of 500 Vietnamese dong per kilogram from last week.
Central American fertilizer trader Incofe has tendered to purchase 12,850 tons of standard-grade ammonium sulfate and 6,950 tons of granular ammonium sulfate, with loading scheduled from September 20th to October 5th.
As sellers attempt to stimulate liquidity by adjusting ammonium sulfate prices to accommodate the decline in urea, the quote for granular ammonium sulfate in Brazil has dropped again this week. However, the latest price for granular urea is approximately 345 dollars per ton CFR, which means granular ammonium sulfate is at 158 dollars per ton CFR—still about 5 dollars per ton lower than actual prices. Tender prices are around 150 dollars per ton CFR, while quotes from various sources range between 165-180 dollars per ton CFR.
Ammonium Phosphate
Indian ammonium phosphate prices have slightly decreased, with news emerging early this week of imports of Russian diammonium phosphate (DAP) at an onshore price of $550 per ton. India's DAP imports in August were approximately 487,000 tons, expected to drop to 340,000 tons in September and 235,000 tons in October. The total DAP imports into India for the year so far have reached around 5.24 million tons.
In China, DAP prices remain stable at $560-575 per ton. Authorities in Bangladesh have confirmed that the winning bid for around 310,000 tons of DAP in a private sector tender came in at $649-680 per ton onshore after deducting costs and profit margins, resulting in net earnings of $560-575 per ton. Freight rates for a 40,000-ton vessel from China to Bangladesh range from $23 to $25 per ton.
Two private importers in Pakistan purchased 30,000 tons of Saudi DAP at a high price of $550 per ton CFR.
DAP prices in Thailand are approximately $590 per ton onshore. An 8,800-ton shipment of Chinese DAP is expected to arrive at Ko Sichang this week. Fertilizer demand slowed down this week in some parts of Thailand due to reduced rainfall, but sellers still anticipate stable domestic sales until mid-September.
Due to the seasonal off-peak period in Vietnam, there were no DAP import transactions this week. In terms of exports, DAP prices ranged from $550 per ton CFR for Vietnamese 16-45 DAP goods in 50-kilogram bags.
In Japan, DAP imports in July decreased by 18% year-on-year, totaling 36,400 tons. Deliveries from Morocco amounted to 19,000 tons, lower than the 26,500 tons for the same period last year. Imports from China have remained relatively stable at around 17,400 tons.
In Brazil, south of the Suez, prices for monoammonium phosphate (MAP) remain at $530-535 per ton CFR, with trade volumes still low. Most producers, especially Russian suppliers, are no longer providing supply. Futures prices have declined, with September and October prices at $520-540 per ton and $500-530 per ton, respectively, compared to last week's futures price of $520-540 per ton.
The prices for diammonium phosphate (DAP) and monoammonium phosphate (MAP) in Argentina remain stable at $550-555 per ton CFR. U.S. barge prices fluctuate, with September prices for barge delivery at NOLA at $520-525 per ton FOB, a decrease of $12.50 per ton from the previous week, while MAP prices have risen to $630 per ton FOB. Phosphate production in Mexico increased slightly in July, with DAP production rising to 46,000 tons and MAP production increasing to 12,000 tons. In June, DAP production was 46,000 tons. The total production of DAP and MAP in Mexico from January to July was 312,000 tons.
In the Benelux region, DAP prices remained generally stable at around $600 per ton. The FCA price for bulk DAP in Germany is approximately $560-565 euros per ton, while the FCA price for bulk DAP in France is around $565 euros per ton. The domestic price for DAP in Italy is $550 euros per ton, and the bagged price for DAP in Romania (Constantza) is $640-655 per ton.
The Baltic Sea offshore price for Russian DAP is approximately $500 per ton. According to tenders, the product may be loaded to Central America next month. Starting from September 1st, Russia imposed a 7% tariff on certain fertilizer exports, which will continue until the end of next year. The minimum tax amount for phosphates will be 2,100 rupees (about $22) per ton. All finished fertilizers, except water-soluble DAP and MAP, may be subject to taxation.
There were no DAP sales in Morocco this week. OCP sold less than 5,000 tons of DAP to Western Europe in August and September, with Moroccan onshore prices ranging from $565 to $600 per ton. Saudi Arabia's Ma'aden sold 30,000 tons of DAP to Pakistan, scheduled for shipment next month, at an onshore price of around $540 per ton. Egypt's NCIC sold DAP at $580-590 per ton according to its sales tender on August 28th. NCIC had indicated an FOB price of $515 per ton for its DAP in its tender on August 2nd.
Winning bids in Bangladesh and purchases in Pakistan have alleviated the pressure on most importers east of the Suez Canal. Limited supply in September and exports in October will support DAP prices in the short term. However, the trend is shifting back toward buyers, with major markets in India and Brazil receiving close to record levels of phosphate. Import transactions from the United States this week have put downward pressure on market prices. The European market remains on the high end.
Triple Superphosphate
Morocco's OCP has sold 10,000 tons of triple superphosphate to Western Europe at an offshore price of $405-425 per ton, scheduled for shipment next month.
Egypt's NCIC has recently sold triple superphosphate in most transactions at an offshore price of $450 per ton. If confirmed, these goods are likely destined for shipment to Bangladesh.
In Brazil, triple superphosphate (TSP) is generally priced at $420-430 per ton CFR.
Potash Fertilizer
Due to tight supply in China, granular potassium sulfate prices in East Asia continue to rise. Recent spikes in potassium chloride prices have led to bullish sentiments in the global potassium sulfate market. Potassium sulfate prices in Europe are generally stable, while Egypt's potassium sulfate quotes for the fourth quarter are $80-90 per ton higher than in July. Tight supply of potassium chloride from Laos to Southeast Asia is attributed to strong demand from China, with GTT's latest data showing a 145% year-on-year increase in imports from Laos to China from January to July. This will contribute to price support in the region.
Trading in the potassium chloride market is limited. Brazil has slowed its purchasing pace, with buyers waiting for further clarity on fourth-quarter prices before making purchases, while prices in Europe remain relatively stable.
As tight supply continues into the fourth quarter, low trading may persist. Demand in Europe is expected to rebound, which will support current prices. Demand in Brazil is set to increase in the fourth quarter. In Southeast Asia, rising prices of rice and palm oil will help boost local purchasing power and stimulate demand.
Attention: The above price information is for commercial reference only due to the diversity of information collected, and Kelewell is not responsible for the authenticity of the data.
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