Analysis of China's Potash Imports and Market Dynamics in the First Half of 2024.

23.25% Year-on-Year Increase in Potash Imports in the First Half of 2024

According to customs data, China imported 836,700 tons of potassium chloride (KCl) in June 2024, a decrease of 16.31% compared to the previous month. From January to June 2024, the total import volume was 6.4317 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 23.25%.

Main Import Sources

Russia remains the largest supplier, with China importing 2.097 million tons of KCl from Russia in the first half of the year, accounting for 32.6% of the total. Belarus is the second-largest supplier, with 1.5454 million tons (24.03%), followed by Canada with 1.2607 million tons (19.6%). Notably, imports from Laos also saw significant growth, reaching 1.0181 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 42.71%.

Increase in Consumption

Since 2023, potash consumption has significantly increased. In the first half of 2024, the apparent consumption of KCl reached 9.1568 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.33%. The annual consumption is expected to reach 18-19 million tons.

Market Supply and Major Contract Signing

Despite the significant increase in China's potash imports this year, the domestic market supply remains tight. This is especially evident at the end of the second quarter when delays in major contract negotiations led to domestic prices being higher than international prices. However, with the new annual major contract signed at $273 per ton, market prices have started to ease.

Market Price Fluctuations

Recently, the price of KCl in China has fluctuated significantly. Although the major contract price met expectations, the market price remains higher than the contract price and is expected to decline. So far, the price of imported KCl has decreased by 100-150 yuan per ton. Due to the slow start of the autumn market and insufficient downstream demand, low prices are expected to persist.

In summary, China's domestic KCl market is uncertain, with mixed positive and negative factors. Buyers are mostly in a wait-and-see mode, new orders are not actively concluded, and many are waiting for downstream factory demand to pick up.

Attention: The above information is for commercial reference only due to the diversity of information collected, and Kelewell is not responsible for the authenticity of the data.