In 2024, China's MAP market exhibited a "decline-rise-decline" trend, with relatively small price fluctuations. Market movements were primarily influenced by supply and demand dynamics, market sentiment, and policy factors.
Price Changes (in RMB)
55% Powdered MAP: Highest 3,379.38 (early year), lowest 2,881.25 (end of April), fluctuation 17.29%.
55% Granular MAP: Highest 3,400.00, lowest 3,050.00, fluctuation 11.48%.
58% Powdered MAP: Highest 3,633.33, lowest 3,250.00, fluctuation 11.79%.
Market Trends by Phase
January – May: Before the Spring Festival, market activity was weak, with production cuts and reduced supply and demand. After the holiday, export-driven optimism briefly pushed prices up, but weak domestic demand led to difficulties in high-price transactions, causing prices to decline.
May – August: Demand rebounded as compound fertilizer plants increased production. Active trading and order growth tightened supply, driving prices upward.
August – December: Autumn demand weakened, market sentiment cooled, and companies steadily lowered prices. Trading slowed, and by year-end, prices stabilized.
Overall, the 2024 MAP market was shaped by policy, cost, and supply-demand shifts, experiencing fluctuations but stabilizing toward year-end.
Production Capacity, Output, and Operating Rates
Production Capacity
Total MAP production capacity in 2024 reached 19.99 million tons, a 0.45% year-on-year increase. Capacity changes were minimal due to limited new installations and the elimination of outdated facilities.
Output
Total MAP production for the year was 11.27 million tons, a 5.70% increase year-on-year, maintaining a high level.
Early Year: As the Spring Festival approached, downstream demand stalled, leading to plant shutdowns and production cuts.
Post-Holiday: Export-driven market improvement led to resumption of production at previously idled plants, boosting operating rates.
Summer: Strong market demand and early procurement by compound fertilizer producers kept factory orders high and production running at full capacity.
Post-September: Demand declined, orders decreased, and some factories reduced or halted production, causing a drop in operating rates.
Operating Rate
The average monthly operating rate for MAP in 2024 was 55.12%, a 0.79% year-on-year increase.
First Half: Fluctuated significantly due to order volumes and inventory levels.
Second Half: Supported by pending orders and rising costs, operating rates remained high.
Export Situation
Total Exports
China’s total MAP exports in 2024 reached 2.0046 million tons, down 1.56% year-on-year.
Q1: Policy restrictions and weak global demand led to reduced exports.
Q2: International demand surged, significantly boosting export volumes.
Q3–Q4: Global demand softened, resulting in lower export orders.
Top Export Destinations
Brazil: 750,054 tons
Australia: 211,345 tons
Argentina: 205,713 tons
Summary
In 2024, China's MAP market experienced price fluctuations driven by supply-demand shifts, policies, and costs. While overall production capacity remained stable, output stayed high, operating rates increased slightly, and exports declined marginally. Moving forward, market players should closely monitor policy changes, international demand, and domestic supply-demand trends.
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